THRESHOLD SEASON THREE | EXTRA 1

Final Showdown Over the Refuge?

This series was supported by the Pulitzer Center.

AMY: Hey everybody, in the last week there have been some big developments in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge story, and that’s what this extra is all about. But before we dive into all of that, I want to let you know that we had to change the date of our special event with National Geographic photographer Ami Vitale. That event was originally scheduled for this week, but Ami had some unexpected changes to her travel plans, so we’ve moved it to Thursday, September 10th. It’s still at 7 pm eastern time, it’s all happening on Zoom, so you can participate from wherever you are, and it’s going to be such a fun night. We’re going to do special live taping of a Threshold Conversations episode. You’ll get to see how we make the show, and you’ll have the chance to learn about how Ami Vitale’s makes her award-winning photographs, which document efforts to protect elephants, pandas, rhinos and more. Again, it’s all happening on September 10th. You can get tickets and more information at our website, thresholdpodcast.org. I hope to see you there.

OK. So what’s going on with the Refuge? Well, if you listened to the Peabody-award winning third season of Threshold, you already know the backstory: after 40 years of debating over whether or not we should drill for oil in the country’s largest wildlife refuge, Congress made drilling legal in December of 2017. In fact, they mandated drilling in the refuge, but there’s a big process of environmental review required before that can actually happen. So the latest news is that last week, the Department of the Interior announced that this environmental review was complete, and that they were opening up the whole coastal plain for oil and gas development. So, the simplest way to say this is that the pro-oil side is closer than it’s ever been to making drilling a reality in the refuge.

But that is not the end of this story. We’re releasing this on Wednesday. Two days ago, on Monday, two different lawsuits aimed at stopping the drilling were filed in U.S. district court in Alaska. Both of the lawsuits have multiple plaintiffs, one is led by the Gwich’in Steering Committee, and one is led by the Audubon Society. And these lawsuits claim that the Trump administration has violated the Endangered Species Act and many other signature natural resource and indigenous rights laws.

When we were producing season three of Threshold, everyone who was paying attention to this issue we knew this was all going to happen sometime before the 2020 election: this moment when the administration says yes, we are definitely going for this, and the opponents to drilling say, no you’re not, we’ll see you in court. In a way, that’s why I wanted to make the whole series: to give people the background on this issue, to understand this critical juncture. Here we are, the election is less than three months away, and what could be the final showdown on drilling in the Refuge is on.

To help analyze this important moment, I called Heather Richards, a reporter for E & E News, which is a news organization based in Washington D.C. which focuses on energy and the environment. Heather covers offshore energy and drilling on public lands for E&E. She previously covered energy and the environment for The Casper Star-Tribune in Wyoming. She and I talked last Friday, after the administration made their announcement, but before the lawsuits were filed, and we focused on what’s happening, what it means, and why it matters. Quite a few listeners responded to our call for questions on social media. Thanks to you, I think we covered most of them here, feel free to send us more questions though—we’re going to be keeping a very close eye on this over the next few months. 

So, to start, I asked Heather just to sum up where we are right now, or at least where we were on Friday, August 21st.

HEATHER: The Interior secretary David Bernhardt, Trump's Interior secretary announced a final decision on the oil and gas leasing program. It was expected, but people didn't know exactly when it was gonna come. And then on Monday they, they popped it out and there was a decision on, on the program, which is just the final step kind of before they can move forward and actually have a lease auction up there.

AMY: So just to make sure everybody's tracking all the different terms, what is a lease sale, or a lease auction, and I think you kind of just defined it, but, but what is a record of decision? 

HEATHER: So, when, you know, the federal government has a bunch of minerals, right? Oil and gas assets that are out in Wyoming, oil and gas assets that are in Alaska and there's programs throughout the country. There's programs in the Gulf of Mexico, there's programs in states like Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico. And we regularly have these oil and gas lease sales, which is an auction where oil and gas companies can get a bid in and they get, they, they bid in for lease. And then they have a certain period of time in which they can develop those minerals. So they do the drilling, you know, but they, the, the, the actual minerals are held in trust by the federal government. Technically they, they belong to us, I guess is the reality there, but, you know, the federal government manages them on behalf of the American people. And so, the ANWR story is one of developing a leasing program. And so that is where we're at right now with a record of decision is they created this program, they went through, kind of the steps that you have to go through to do environmental review and analyze the impacts of having an oil and gas leasing program and development program and ANWR. And then they make a decision on how they're going to proceed with that. And then you have the program set up and done. And then the next thing is to actually, you know, implement it by having lease sales. So we're at the point where we have a program, we know what it looks like, and they have not yet made that step where it says, okay, oil and gas companies on December 15th, we're going to have this, the sale, get ready.

AMY: So what does the record of decision say? And I mean, it's a whatever 90 page document, sof course we're not gonna be able to go into all the details, but in broad strokes, what do we know now that we didn't know before it came out?

HEATHER: We knew, we knew most of this going in because we had the process, the environmental review process. We kind of knew that what they were going to do, which as, you know, they kind of look at it a couple of different tracks and then they analyze those. So what would happen if we only opened up a million acres of the coastal plain and developed just that, what would that look like? You know, what, what would it look like if we only let this area over here develop, it didn't come anywhere near the riparian and the water areas, you know, these different kinds of ways that you can juggle, examining a potential oil and gas program. And the one they did is the most extensive, which is to say, basically, we're going to lease the entirety of the coastal plain, which is one-six, 1.6 million acres of the entire Refuge is 19.3 or so. So it's a massive area. In 1.6 million acres is the coastal area where there's, you know, expected to be quite a bit of oil underneath. So the entire and the area is to be open to oil and gas for leasing. So there's, so we have this kind of broad scope, but there's still a lot, a ton of details in terms of how development would take place in the refuge that we do not know from this, and is gonna, is gonna come out during the lease sale, after lease sale, as, as things move forward, if they move forward.

AMY: And so timing, timing is, uh, always the issue, right? What do we know about when the lease sale might happen? If anything,

HEATHER: The only thing we know for sure is there, there, isn't kind of in statute and the what they have to do is they have to put out at least notice 30 days before a sale takes place. So that's the only kind of timing that we know for sure that there here's this block of time, here's this rule that we have to follow. Otherwise we don't know anything except that, you know, Congress said, you have to hold the first lease sale by 2021. So any, any time between now and the end of 2021, they could hold the sale and still be, you know, in compliance with Congress has asked them to do. But of course we all know that there's a massive controversial election coming up in November. And so, so if, you know, if they wanted to do something before Trump left office, for example, the thing they would be really, really pressed for is that 30 day period. But what, what usually happens in like the petroleum reserve Alaska is they also give like 30 to 60 days to the oil and gas industry. So they put out this notice to oil and gas industry, which is also a notice for all of us, a call for nominations. And so that's the point where they've kind of bring in oil and gas and oil and gas is making its decision on what it wants to bid on and what it wants to do. And so that, that is also something that takes up time. So, you know, you, you know, you could reasonably think they need two months between they do something active, like call for nominations and actually wholesale, but that isn't even, that's, that's, that's not even set in stone, like technically it's only 30 days.

AMY: And one of the things that seems really puzzling to me about this case in particular is, you know, there was hope on some people's part that there would be a new seismic exploration last winter, and that didn't happen. And so if they do a lease sale between now and the election, they're going to be doing it based on this old data from, you know, whatever it was 30 some years ago. What do you know about that? I mean, is that unusual to have a lease sale in an area where they know so little about the specifics of where the oil actually is, or how much specifically there is? I mean, we have guesses, but they're very broad guesses at this point.

HEATHER: Yeah. It's not necessarily unusual, I think, given the narrowness potentially of the time period that they have access here and the pressure on it. It's definitely a thing where oil and gas operators are to some degree would be bidding blind, I think is what people, how people say it. Now there's a lot that the oil and gas business, and there's a lot that federal agencies, and there's a lot that people up here have been studying this, you know, academics and geologists and such, that they know. And so, so yes, they are going in blind, but that's not to say they're so super blind that they're, they don't know anything. They're just making some educated guesses, I guess.

AMY: I wonder if that would inhibit the leasing process though. It all, just in terms of the amount of risks that people are taking on it, it would seems like it would be very beneficial to know, you know, what the potential rewards are in, you know, with some specificity.

HEATHER: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I mean, that's a, it's, it's one of the many factors, I guess the experts are, are thinking about in terms of how competitive this leaf sale ends up being. Because, you know, the more knowledge you have, the more awareness you have of a place that could be really profitable, the more valuable that is. And so people bid on that and the competition shoots up the price and the whole reason we're opening up ANWR supposedly, is to bring in this revenue, right? So, so, so yes, that is a, it's a massive factor in, in terms of the economics up there. I think of what happens in a lease. But it's just, it's just something that, it's just something that, you know, they, they have to do. I mean, the Trump administration obviously tripped over a lot of things, you know, trying to get this done. That's the reality, this is the reality of drilling up there, right? Polar bears and the Endangered Species Act and the weather and global warming. And it's so expensive to drill up there. And there's no infrastructure at all for oil and gas development in the Refuge, in the coastal plain, right? As like there is enough other places, which is a whole nother expense. So I feel like, you know, the lack of seismic, in particular is just, you know, one more thing that kind of affects, you know, do these guys want to drill up there or not? How much are they going to spend to drill? How much is this going to end up garnering? Cause everybody's curious, everybody wants to know, right? Like, you know, environmentalists are curious and everybody's kind of curious about what happens and what ANWR holds. I think a lot of people might be holding out and hoping that everybody drills dry holes and you know, you can thumb your nose at the oil and gas industry and say, we told you, so you shouldn't have done this. You know, you shouldn't have drilled here. And other people, you know, are convinced that, you know, there's buckets and buckets of oil there, that's gonna come up. And I just, I just, none of us really know that.

AMY: Yeah. Yeah. And then there's also the economics of right now. And obviously this is a long term investment with potential long term rewards, but I mean, it is, it is a really interesting time to be opening up a new oil field when we've got a huge oil glut and crude prices are way down and major oil companies that are posting like record losses, small operators are going out of business, like, and it's because there's too much oil on the market. Just in terms of purely the economics, like taking polar bears and everything else out of it. Why is there a good economic argument to pursue drilling anyway, given where we're at in the oil markets right now?

HEATHER: No, no, I've never, I haven't heard anybody. I think that what the defense that people would kind of try and bring to that argument would be that oil and gas development, something that takes over, takes place over a long period of time. So you want to try and try and, you know, get those leases sold and get the economic activity from selling leases and getting people involved there. And then you have development that takes place over decades or what have you. And I mean, I, you know, I guess there's, there's certainly a truth in the fact that, you know, somebody who doesn't necessarily look at tomorrow for their long term plans in the oil and gas business, they set things up over time. But, but that's not, I don't think that that really answers your question, which is  why do this now in this, in this place? There's not a great, there's not a great answer for that. You know, I think Alaska has been pushing for this for such a long time for, you know, kind of understandable reasons in the sense that they're so, they're so dependent on oil and gas, even though of course there are Alaskans that do not want this at all. But it is fairly popular in the state. And certainly the politicians have pushed for this for a long time for that reason. But again, that doesn't get to your get to your point, does it, you know, we have what we have an oil and gas gullet globally that's led by the United States becoming this massive oil and gas producer because of shell drilling and fracking and all these things happening in the lower 48 that totally changed the oil and gas market globally. 

AMY: Yeah.

HEATHER: It's not an easy sell. If I was trying to sell it, like I'm trying my best right now to sell it to you. I just don't have a lot to offer, you know, the, the, the price of oil is in trouble, the oil and gas market is trouble. That could last for very long time. We could have somewhat depressed prices for a very long time. But then again, the oil and gas industry, it still exists. There's people that still want to drill. So, you know, maybe there is a chance I don't know.

AMY: And then, and then let's get into the polar bear issue and the wildlife issue in general. Cause I mean, I think that is the other thing that that would feel daunting to take on as a, as a drilling company that, you know, you know, you know, you're going to make people really mad if you run over a polar bear den, kill a mother and her cubs, which isn't completely possible. I mean, not just once, but, you know, as a, as a part of operations. What do you think the largest weaknesses are here on the environmental front in terms of places where this record of decision or the NEPA process in general may become, come under fire from people who want to litigate?

HEATHER: Polar bears do seem to be this massive pinch point. Yeah. Just because of South Beaufort sea population that's over there is, is so imperiled. And it is the job of the fish and wildlife service to kind of protect those, that species. The way they kind of look at these kinds of projects, they have to put out a biological opinion that says whether or not, you know, this can go forward without, you know, really jeopardizing the, the population as a whole. And they did do that earlier this year, put out a biological opinion that was interesting, it said, you know, we don't see this program as a whole necessarily, as threatening the species, but, you know, basically, you know, we really have to work with anybody on the leasing, permitting, you know, down the line, in order to make sure that's not the case, because the reality is like you have, you have a population that is so imperiled already. So I think that the polar bear issue is, is probably the one that's most massive, you know, because they have to build ice roads. They have to get out there, you know, assuming that at some point, if somebody got a lease, they would want to do seismic, you know, there's just a lot of things that have to take place in order for drilling to take place. And then of course there's drilling. So there's all this activity that has happened, even if they're trying to keep their footprint very, very low up there, which they're kind of required to do. They're still footprint and they're still, there's still a ton of bears that are all over this all over this coastal plain. So I think the polar bear issue is one people focused on a lot, just because it seems so impossible to get past that in order to have an oil and gas program take place here legally.

AMY: And have you, have you witnessed an, a proposed lease sale that actually got stopped or delayed because of legal challenges before and, and you know what, that, that's where I want to get into some questions from some of our listeners. And that's one thing that many people have asked is like, if there is a lawsuit, could it actually stopped us from going forward? How is, how do those two things intersect?

HEATHER: Yeah. There there's some precedent, is definitely has happened. But there's a reason environmentalists is fight very hard at the leasing stage. And it's because once that lease is in somebody’s hands for the time period of that lease, they have a right to do something, it's like a property, right, right? It's a right to drill. And it's pretty strong. So, so there's a, there's a lot of people watching this and thinking that a lease sale for ANWR is going to happen sooner rather than later, because once those leases are in the hands of a company or an individual, the government has promised it's going to allow them to do something. So it's not easy to just, you know, snatch that away from somebody.

AMY: So to kind of summarize where that leaves us in terms of timing, then we've got on the pro drilling side, a lot of urgency to get that lease sale held. And on the anti drilling side, a lot of urgency to get lawsuits filed, to stop the lease sale from happening; all of this on the assumption that if President Trump remains in office and they have leases, then they will, it's it's open season, go ahead and start drilling. And if, if Joe Biden gets an office and, and they've managed to delay the lease sale, I believe he's pledged to shut down the possibility of drilling in ANWR. Is that, is that your understanding of his position, Biden’s?

HEATHER: Yeah, he made a day, one promise to restore protections in ANWR. And he's long been against drilling it in ANWR, but again, like I, you know, from what I've seen and what a legal analysis I've heard, you know, once they have those leases, it would become a problem. So a president can't necessarily do that easily either. So that would become a court issue. You know, so, so, but he has made that commitment. He has made that commitment that in day one he'll come in and he'll restore the protections on ANWR, and, and I don't know, I've definitely heard folks say that, you know, that is something that with an executive order he probably feasibly could do, but again, it's, it's, it's, it's a conflict, right? Because Congress is the one that mandated the sale. So, you know, in November, I think the other thing we're thinking about is not just who's, who's the president, but what's the makeup of the Senate, because that's going to have it right. That's going to have a, that's going to have a huge impact on what happens next.

AMY: Yeah. I know. I need to let you go here, but a couple quick ending questions from our, from our listeners.  I think we covered the first couple here….we had several questions about how indigenous people in the area are reacting to this and feeling about this, but I'm, I want to table those until I actually get to talk to some of the indigenous people up there and they let them, tell us themselves how they're feeling, but I just want to acknowledge to listeners. We hear you, we're curious, we're working on that. And so I guess I'll just end with our probably most frequent question from, from our listener base has been, what can people do to impact this process and quite a few listeners asking specifically what can they do to stop the drilling from happening? What's your answer to that when, as a journalist, when people, when people ask you that kind of question.

HEATHER: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, as you know, I mean, our positions as journalists are not necessarily to, to advocate for, for people to, or not do something in relation to political, political power. I, I, I don't know. I think my role is to try and understand these things as best as possible and put information out. My, my role is not necessarily to, to teach people how to be activists, but, but I don't know. I'd be curious your thoughts honestly, because you know, journalism is changing a lot and there's kind of questions about objectivity and our role in these kinds of things are, are very, very important questions to be having right now having right now. So I don't know. What do you say to people when they ask you?

AMY: I think I say something really similar, which is, you know, I think that there's a really important role for activism in society. And I think that there's a really important role for journalism. And I think that those two things are different, but inform each other, journalists should be covering what activists do on all sides and understanding them and activist should be reading journalism on all sides and there should be conversation. But I do think that there's value in having, an attempt to create a space to think and learn together that is not, explicitly persuasive. And, and that by providing education, information, you know, interviews with people who know the issue, the best, to make space for people to, to kind of feel empowered in their own lives, in their own minds to make up their own, to make their own decisions about what to do. I think that there are cases where some people might say that's that's cowardly, or that's like punting in some way of like, Oh no, you know, you, you gotta, you gotta like tell people what to do, but I actually think it's, I think the temptation to weigh in and sort of assume as a journalist, because you've researched something really well, that you, you, you know, the right answer, and, and that you have the right or the authority to tell their people what to do is also kind of a form of cowardice and, and honestly, hubris that feels important to stay away from. So, I think if I get asked that, and I guess I am being asked that directly right now, as a journalist, who's covered this, my feeling is what I want to tell people to do is learn and listen to voices that they might maybe don't expect agree with. And, and just try to keep learning and then do all the things that they do as, as citizens in their own communities and in the nation that make them feel, like they're like they have meaning, you know, as citizens.

HEATHER: Yeah. People are engaging so much more with information and sometimes without the tools or the time actually, to figure out what's true or not, you know what I mean? So I don't know. It's a difficult time. I really, my heart goes out to people reading the news as somebody that's in the news. You know, I get pissed off all the time at other journalists. I get pissed off with myself and the, in the ecosystem, but I also really believe in what we do and I'm exposed to so many incredible journalists. I mean, that, just do that, just navigate it so well. And, but I think for folks just normal people across the country, they just feel overwhelmed. And I feel for them, you know, because they are overwhelmed, like they're not wrong. Like there's tons of information being poured at them. And there's a lot of, you know, people use the word bias in a lot of weird ways, but there's definitely just a lot of shading, shading that goes on. I think that it's just hard for people to wade through.

AMY: Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. But I, I do also agree though, that there is in addition to all the journalism or pseudo journalism that's out there, there are some really fantastic reporting happening and, and you're one of those people doing it. So thanks for just cranking out story after valuable and meaty and nuanced story about a lot of things that I'm paying attention to. You're, you're doing great work and I'm grateful for it and, and grateful for your time here today. Thanks so much Heather.

HEATHER: No, it was fun, thank you so much for having me. I’m sorry, I do, I get a little bit chatty on stuff. So seriously, good luck on editing that.

AMY: I love the chatty. It's been great talking to you. Take care.

HEATHER: Take care.

AMY: Bye.

HEATHER: Bye. 

MUSIC

AMY: Like I said at the top: we’re going to be tracking this story closely over the next few months. And if you want to understand the whole context here a little better, season three of Threshold is a really good resource. We go into the origin story of this conflict, and we talk to some of the people who call this land home. Gwich’in people in the U.S. and in Canada, Iñupiaq people who live in the only village located inside the Refuge, people who support drilling, others who oppose it. And, we won our first Peabody award for this season of our show, so thank you for listening and sharing it with other people—your recommendation means so much. You can find it a thresholdpodcast.org, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Our funders include the Pulitzer Center, Montana Public Radio, the Park Foundation, the High Stakes Foundation, NewsMatch, and you, our listeners. You can join our community and get tickets to our upcoming live event with Ami Vitale at thresholdpodcast.org.

The team behind Threshold includes Angela Swatek, Caysi Simpson, Eva Kalea, Nick Mott and Taliah Farnsworth. Special thanks to board members Caroline Kurtz, Dan Carreno, Hana Carey, Kara Cromwell, Katie deFusco and Matt Herlihy. Our music is by Travis Yost.